Tuesday, Nov. 19, marks 1,000 days since Russia invaded Ukraine. On Feb. 24, 2022, Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine, with Russian President Vladimir Putin expecting that Kyiv, the capitol city, would fall within three days and the rest of the country would swiftly follow.
As the war grinds toward its third year, casualties are high, especially on the Russian side. In September, The Wall Street Journal reported that the total number of dead and wounded on both sides had reached 1 million, but an accurate count is elusive.
According to the Journal, a confidential Ukrainian estimate put the number of Ukrainian dead at 80,000, with 400,000 wounded. On the Russian side, estimates put the number of dead as high as 200,000, with 400,000 wounded. British publication The Guardian reported in October that Russia is believed to have suffered “catastrophic losses,” reportedly losing up to 90% of the personnel it had at the onset of the conflict, leading many in the international community to call the Russian front the “meat grinder.”
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy told Ukrainian media on Saturday that Russia is now losing between 1,500 and 2,000 people every day.
Where the war is today
Russia now controls nearly one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory, reports the AP, while Ukraine was able to take control of the Russian territory of Kursk earlier this fall.
North Korea has sent soldiers to fight on Russia’s behalf, with Bloomberg reporting the number could be as high as 100,000. In spite of assurances that these noncombat-ready soldiers would stay out of the direct fighting, the BBC reports that Ukrainian fighters have already faced North Korean soldiers.
The U.S. Department of Defense reported in September that Iran has been supplying Russia with drones and short-range ballistic missiles. Additionally, the AP reports that Russia is manufacturing hundreds of decoy drones aimed at overwhelming Ukraine’s defense system while also churning out thermobaric drones. Per the AP, the thermobaric warheads “create a vortex of high pressure and heat that can penetrate thick walls. They suck out all the oxygen in their path, and have a fearsome reputation because of the injuries inflicted even outside the initial blast site: Collapsed lungs, crushed eyeballs, brain damage.”
Ukraine will be forced to make split-second decisions on whether they expend scarce resources to take down dummy drones in an effort to protect lives from the thermobaric drones.
Leading up to the presidential election, then-candidate Donald Trump said he could end the Ukraine-Russia war “in a day,” although the details were never made clear. Since the election, President-elect Trump said he has spoken to Putin and warned him not to escalate the war. The Kremlin denies the conversation, but then escalated drone and missile attacks. Russia has sent glide bombs, drones and ballistic missiles into civilian areas, reports the AP, resulting in daily casualties.
On Sunday night, Russia launched “massive attacks” on Ukraine energy infrastructure, with 120 missiles and 90 drones. As a result, Ukraine announced it would be introducing nationwide emergency power restrictions, reports France24.
Biden authorizes missile use
Current President Joe Biden has authorized Ukraine to use a powerful American long-range weapon, the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, for limited strikes inside Russia, according to two senior U.S. officials. Russian officials furiously condemned the decision, even as Russian missiles killed at least 21 people inside Ukraine in a pair of attacks. A former Kremlin official told The Washington Post that Moscow now believes NATO has gone to war with Russia and that “they will proceed accordingly.”
On Tuesday, Day 1,000, Russia said that Ukraine had sent its first ATACMS (pronounced “attack-ems”) into the Russian region of Bryansk. Ukraine has not commented publicly on the ATACMS, but senior American and Ukrainian officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss ongoing operations, confirmed that ATACMS were used. Andriy Kovalenko, head of the National Security and Defense Council’s Center for Countering Disinformation, said in a Tuesday post on Telegram that Ukraine struck an ammo depot in Bryansk, without confirming the involvement of the long-range missiles, reports The Hill.
Also on Tuesday, President Putin signed the country’s new nuclear policy, which was first announced in September. The new policy declares that Russia could use nuclear weapons to respond to an attack by a nation backed by a nuclear power, reports the Post. “Aggression against the Russian Federation and (or) its allies by any nonnuclear state with the participation or support of a nuclear state is considered as their joint attack,” the document says. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said “the fact that ATACMS were repeatedly used against the Bryansk region last night is a clear signal that they want an escalation.”
The Washington Post also reports that the White House wants to put Ukraine in the best possible place ahead of peace talks that Trump is expected to spearhead early in his term. “President Biden has committed to making sure that every dollar we have at our disposal will be pushed out the door between now and Jan. 20,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters Wednesday in Brussels. Biden will “use every day to continue to do what we have done these last four years, which is strengthen this alliance,” Blinken said, adding that Biden officials were working to deliver all the aid approved by the U.S. Congress for Ukraine before leaving office.
What next?
amie Dettmer, the opinion editor of Politico Europe, writes that he believes there is “secret relief” in some European quarters that Donald Trump could actually bring the war to a close, and is more likely to get concessions from Putin. “Of course, this means Russian President Vladimir Putin’s thuggishness will be rewarded, that there will be no accountability for the bestial nature of his army’s atrocious behavior or the unlawful, detestable deportations from occupied parts of Ukraine to Russia. The axis of autocrats will be emboldened in their determination to smash the old global order,” he writes. “But there’s no other alternative.”
Megan Stack, opinion writer for the New York Times, agrees Trump should quickly put an end to the war. If Trump follows the advice of people like his V.P-elect and his national security advisor nominee “and pushes Ukraine into talks that result in lost territory, his political rivals as well as hawks in his own party will accuse him of abandoning Ukraine and rewarding Vladimir Putin’s hunger for expansion … Ukrainians would be hung out to dry, and Mr. Putin could end up attacking again or expanding his imperial designs to other neighbors. Mr. Trump should do it anyway,” she writes.
Their reasoning is that this war is a “war of attrition,” losing both soldiers and supplies in what could become a “forever war.” Russia wants Ukraine’s land and guarantees that Ukraine not join NATO. Ukraine wants its land back, and also wants guarantees that it get an immediate invite to join NATO, as well as concrete international security guarantees. As a reminder, Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in 1994, in exchange for security guarantees from the U.S., the United Kingdom and Russia. They have reason to be leery of vague security promises.
While the world waits to see what happens when Trump takes office, and while Ukraine and Russia keep grinding it out, Sweden and Finland are urging their residents to prepare for war.
Originally published in the Deseret News
